Our outlook
From an early age, members of our team have been immersed in the stock market and investment world. That background shapes how we look at football: we think about data, risk and expected value - whether the possible reward is worth the risk - before names, reputations or exciting odds.
We are competitive and we want to win, but we do not rely on hunches or chase huge long shots for the story. We usually focus on higher-probability choices that can be judged over time. They are not "safe bets" - every forecast can lose.
We also develop and test stock-market strategies, and some have worked very well for us. If we can explain and test that work as openly as MatchForecast, perhaps we will share it one day too.
The method
How MatchForecast works
The short version, without the research jargon.
Start with the market
We look at odds across bookmakers. Together, those prices give us a useful starting point for how a match might go.
Remove the bookmaker's margin
Odds include a built-in cushion for the bookmaker. We remove that margin to produce a clearer estimate of each team's chance of winning or drawing.
Show the uncertainty
Every match can surprise us. That is why we show Home, Draw and Away percentages instead of presenting one result as certain.
Test new ideas before using them
We experiment with new forecasting methods, but they do not reach the app until they have worked on matches they have never seen before.
What MatchForecast does today
Today, MatchForecast starts with odds from bookmakers. Those odds include a built-in margin. We remove it so the Home, Draw and Away percentages add up to a fair 100%.
Put simply, we do not claim that the current method performs better than the wider betting market. In technical terms: The current production forecast does not claim independent predictive lift over market consensus.
We are testing new ideas, but a more complicated method will only replace the current one if it performs better on matches it has never seen before.
How past forecasts performed
Loading past results...
Past results do not promise future results. Postponed, abandoned and void matches are not counted.
Plain English
Common questions
Short answers to the terms you will see around the app.
They show how likely each result appears to be. If Home is shown as 60%, MatchForecast estimates that the home team has a 60 in 100 chance of winning. It is still an estimate, not a promise.
What Premium gives you
Free members receive one daily forecast. Premium members can view every published forecast, the complete Home, Draw and Away percentages, fair-odds comparisons and more match context. Premium gives you more information; it never guarantees a result.
Predictions are probabilities, not promises. MatchForecast does not accept bets, handle stakes, award prizes, or link to bookmakers.